COMET Case Study 015: Southeast U.S. Cyclogenesis

Project Dates

April 27, 1998 to April 30, 1998

Project Description

This case follows the evolution of a low pressure system through its life cycle as it moved from Arkansas to Illinois, and provides a good example of the effects of model biases in the AVN model. The errors introduced to the AVN model due to inherent biases resulted in an incorrect prediction of strong cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico.

Objectives

This case was developed for the COMAP Symposium on Numerical Weather Prediction to show the biases and systematic errors seen in the operational version of the AVN and MRF global models.

Data Access for COMET Case 015