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MPEX Publications

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Publications

Berman, J., R. Torn, G. Romine, and M. Weisman, 2017: Sensitivity of Northern Great Plains Convection Forecasts to Upstream and Downstream Forecast Errors. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0353.1.
Publications
Burlingame, B., C. Evans, and P. Roebber, 2017: The Influence of PBL Parameterization on the Practical Predictability of Convection Initiation During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Wea. Forecasting. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-16-0174.1.
Publications
Coniglio, M. C., G. S. Romine, D. D. Turner, & R. D. Torn, 2019: Impacts of Targeted AERI and Doppler Lidar Wind Retrievals on Short-Term Forecasts of the Initiation and Early Evolution of Thunderstorms, Monthly Weather Review, 147(4), 1149-1170, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0351.1.
Publications
Coniglio, M., S. Hitchcock, and K. Knopfmeier, 2016: Impact of assimilating preconvective upsonde observations on short-term forecasts of convection observed during MPEX. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0091.1.
Publications
Hill, A. J., C. C. Weiss, & B. C. Ancell, 2016: Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Mesoscale Forecasts of Dryline Convection Initiation. Monthly Weather Review, 144(11), 4161-4182, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0338.1.
Publications
Hill, A. J., C. C. Weiss, & B. C. Ancell, 2020: Factors Influencing Ensemble Sensitivity–Based Targeted Observing Predictions at Convection-Allowing Resolutions. Monthly Weather Review, 148(11), 4497-4517, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0015.1.
Publications
Hitchcock, S. M., M. C. Coniglio, and K. H. Knopfmeier, 2016: Impact of MPEX upsonde observations on ensemble analyses and forecasts of the 31 May 2013 convective event over Oklahoma. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0344.1.
Publications
Jones, T. A., X. Wang, P. Skinner, A. Johnson, & Y. Wang, 2018: Assimilation of GOES-13 Imager Clear-Sky Water Vapor (6.5 μm) Radiances into a Warn-on-Forecast System. Monthly Weather Review, 146(4), 1077-1107, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0280.1.
Publications
Keclik, A., C. Evans, P. Roebber, and G. Romine, 2017: The Influence of Assimilated Upstream, Pre-Convective Dropsonde Observations on Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0159.1.
Publications
Kerr, C. A., D. J. Stensrud, & X. Wang, 2019: Diagnosing Convective Dependencies on Near-Storm Environments Using Ensemble Sensitivity Analyses, Monthly Weather Review, 147(2), 495-517, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0140.1.
Publications
Kerr, C., D. Stensrud, and X. Wang, 2016: Verification of convection-allowing model ensemble analyses of near-storm environments using MPEX upsonde observations. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0287.1.
Publications
Majumdar, S. J., 2016: A Review of Targeted Observations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), 2287-2303, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00259.1.
Publications
Romine, G., C. Schwartz, R. Torn, and M. Weisman, 2016: Impact of assimilating dropsonde observations from MPEX on ensemble forecasts of severe weather events. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0407.1.
Publications
Schumacher, Russ S., 2015: Resolution Dependence of Initiation and Upscale Growth of Deep Convection in Convection-Allowing Forecasts of the 31 May–1 June 2013 Supercell and MCS. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4331–4354, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0179.1.
Publications
Schwartz, C. S., G. S. Romine, M. L. Weisman, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, K. W. Manning, & S. B. Trier, 2015: A Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Initialized by Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses. Weather and Forecasting, 30(5), 1158-1181, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0013.1.
Publications
Schwartz, C. S., G. S. Romine, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, & M. L. Weisman, 2019: NCAR’s Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Project, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(2), 321-343, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0297.1.
Publications
Schwartz, C., G. Romine, K. Fossell, R. Sobash, and M. Weisman, 2017: Toward 1-km ensemble forecasts over large domains. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0410.1.
Publications
Sobash, R. A., C. S. Schwartz, G. S. Romine, K. R. Fossell, & M. L. Weisman, 2016: Severe Weather Prediction Using Storm Surrogates from an Ensemble Forecasting System. Weather and Forecasting, 31(1), 255-271, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0138.1.
Publications
Torn, R. D., and G. S. Romine, 2015: Sensitivity of Central Oklahoma Convection Forecasts to Upstream Potential Vorticity Anomalies during Two Strongly Forced Cases during MPEX. Monthly Weather Review, 143, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0085.1.
Publications
Torn, R., G. Romine, and T. Galarneau Jr., 2017: Sensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Cases. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0457.1.
Publications
Trapp, R. J., 2014: On the Significance of Multiple Consecutive Days of Tornado Activity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1452-1459, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00347.1
Publications
Trapp, R. J., D. J. Stensrud, M. C. Coniglio, R. S. Schumacher, M. E. Baldwin, S. Waugh, and D. T. Conlee, 2015: Mobile Radiosonde Deployments during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Rapid and Adaptive Sampling of Upscale Convective Feedbacks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00258.1.
Publications
Trapp, R., and J. Woznicki, 2017: Convectively induced stabilizations and subsequent recovery with supercell thunderstorms during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0266.1.
Publications
Trier, S. B., G. S. Romine, D. A. Ahijevych, R. J. Trapp, R. S. Schumacher, M. C. Coniglio, and D. J. Stensrud, 2015: Mesoscale Thermodynamic Influences on Convection Initiation near a Surface Dryline in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble. Monthly Weather Review, 143, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0133.1.
Publications
Wade, A., M. Coniglio, and C. Ziegler, 2018: Comparison of Near- and Far-field Supercell Inflow Environments using Radiosonde Observations. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0276.1.
Publications
Weisman, M. L., R. J. Trapp, G. S. Romine, C. Davis, R. Torn, M. Baldwin, L. Bosart, J. Brown, M. Coniglio, D. Dowell, A. C. Evans, T. J. Galarneau Jr., J. Haggerty, T. Hock, K. Manning, P. Roebber, P. Romashkin, R. Schumacher, C. S. Schwartz, R. Sobash, D. Stensrud, and S. B. Trier, 2015: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00281.1.
Publications

Conference Proceedings

Baldwin, M. E. and L. C. Dawson, 2017: Forecast Evaluation for Convective Features. 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 130.
Conference Proceedings
Berman, Jeremy D., 2015: Applying Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis to WRF Convection Forecasts in the Northern Great Plains. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, Illinois.

Conference Proceedings
Bosart, Lance F., 2013: High Plains Deep Convection: The Forecast Challenges of Predicting Diurnally Varying Mesoscale and Synoptic Scale Interactions over Complex Terrain. Proceedings, 15th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland, OR.

Conference Proceedings
Bosart, Lance F., 2014: On the Formation, Structure, and Evolution of an Eastern Pacific Upper-level Disturbance that Contributed to Severe Weather East of the Rockies during MPEX. Proceedings, 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Atlanta, GA.
Conference Proceedings
Burlingame, Bryan M., 2015: Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization’s Control on Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, Illinois.
Conference Proceedings
Davis, Christopher M., 2013: Probing the Tropopause Region of Mesoscale Weather Systems Using a Microwave Temperature Profiler. Proceedings, 15th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland OR.
Conference Proceedings
Evans, Clark, 2015: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Overview and Results from a Realtime Ensemble-Based Forecast System. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, IL.
Conference Proceedings
Friedlein, Matthew, 2015: Evolution of the 30 June 2014 Double Derecho Event in Northern Illinois & Northwest Indiana. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, Illinois.

Conference Proceedings
Galarneau Jr., T. J., 2014: Comparison of Operational Model Analyses with MPEX Dropsondes. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.
Conference Proceedings
Guastini, Corey T., 2014: The Role of an Upper-Level Potential Vorticity Anomaly in a Severe Weather Outbreak During MPEX. Proceedings, 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Atlanta, GA.
Conference Proceedings
Haggerty, J., K. Schick, M. J. Mahoney, and Boon Lim, 2014: The NCAR Microwave Temperature Profiler: Data applications from recent deployments. Proceedings, Microwave Radiometry and Remote Sensing of the Environment (MicroRad), 2014 13th Specialist Meeting, Pasadena, CA, 133-135.
Conference Proceedings
Hitchcock, Stacey M., 2014: Impact of Targeted Afternoon Radiosonde Observations on Convection-Permitting Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Convective Event in Oklahoma. Proceedings, Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts, Atlanta, GA.
Conference Proceedings
Keclik, Alexandra M., 2015: The Influence of Assimilating Targeted Observations upon Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, IL.
Conference Proceedings
Kerr, Christopher A., 2015: Significance of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear in Convective Upscale Growth: Observations and Model Analyses. Proceedings, 16th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Boston, Massachusetts.
Conference Proceedings
Lenning, Eric, 2015: Storm Scale Meteorological Processes in the 30 June 2014 Double Derecho Event. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, Illinois.

Conference Proceedings
Romine, G., 2014: MPEX: Improving forecasts of severe convective storms through targeted observations. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.
Conference Proceedings
Schaumacher, Russ S., Colorado State University, Coniglio, M.C., Trapp, R.J., Baldwin, M.E., Stensrud, D.J., 2014: Overview and preliminary results of mobile upsonde operations during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Proceedings, 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Atlanta, GA.
Conference Proceedings
Schumacher, Russ S., 2015: Resolution Dependence of Initiation and Upscale Growth of Deep Convection in Convection-Allowing Forecasts of the 31 May—1 June 2013 Supercell and MCS. Proceedings, 16th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Boston Massachusetts.
Conference Proceedings
Texas A&M University, Hernandez, J., Thomas, C., Sodowsky, R., Barta, L., Holt, C., Conlee, D., 2014: Mobile Upper Air Operations in Support of the MPEX Field Experiment. Proceedings, 13th Annual Student Conference, Atlanta, GA.
Conference Proceedings
Torn, R. D., 2014: Evaluating the Sensitivity of Convection Forecasts with Large Synoptic Forcing During MPEX. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.
Conference Proceedings
Weisman, M. L., 2014: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Overview and Results from a Realtime Ensemble-Based Forecast System. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.
Conference Proceedings
Weisman, Morris, 2015: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Overview and Results from a Realtime Ensemble-Based Forecast System. Proceedings, 16th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Boston, Massachusetts.
Conference Proceedings
Weisman, Morris, Trapp, J., Bosart, L., Brown, J.M., Davis, C., Dowell, D.C., Romine, G., Schumacher, R.S., Stensrud, D.J., Torn, R.D., 2014: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): An Ensemble-Forcast-Based Mesoscale Field Campaign. Proceedings, 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Atlanta, GA.
Conference Proceedings
Woznicki, J. M., 2014: Potential Vorticity Upscale Feedbacks Observed During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Proceedings, Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts, Atlanta, GA.
Conference Proceedings
Woznicki, J. M., 2014: Upscale Feedbacks During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.
Conference Proceedings

Theses

Dawson, L. C., 2017: On the Predictability of Multiday Episodes of Severe Convective Storms During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment. Dissertation, Purdue University.
Theses
Keclik, A. M., 2016: The Influence of Assimilated Targeted Observations Upon Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation. Thesis, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Theses
Kerr, C., 2017: Analysis of environmental modifications by deep convection during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment. Dissertation, University of Oklahoma.
Theses
Wade, A., 2016: Rawinsonde Observations of Supercell-Environment Interactions. Thesis, University of Oklahoma.
Theses
Woznicki, J. M., 2014: Upscale feedbacks observed and modeled during the mesoscale predictability experiment. Dissertation, Purdue University.
Theses